Ag News

Agricultural Commodity Markets Reaction to the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Source: FarmDoc Daily

March 7, 2021

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a major shock to agricultural commodity markets. Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of agricultural commodities, especially wheat and corn (see farmdoc daily February 28, 2022). War in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia have already impeded the flow of agricultural commodities from the Black Sea region to world markets...

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031 - Focus on Corn, Soybeans

Source: FarmDoc Daily

February 17, 2022

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its 10-year projections for the food and agricultural sector. In part, the baseline update explained that, “The Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 is assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses...

US Interest Rates

Source: FarmDoc Daily

December 23, 2021

This article therefore examines US nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates.  Americans younger than 40 have little experience with sustained increases in interest rates.  Moreover, the current real interest rate is more negative than any time over the observation period that starts in 1962.  A third article in this series will examine the US labor market...

Trends in Farmland Leasing

Source: FarmDoc Daily

September 28, 2021

Over time, more Illinois farmland is being cash rented rather than share rented. Cash rental arrangements adjust more slowly to changes in farmland returns than share rental agreements. As more farmland is cash rented, a farm’s financial position will become more closely tied to the level of cash rents relative to farmland returns. That situation could concern farmers when cash rents are set based on returns at a given time, knowing farmland returns could decline in the future...

Comparing Net Returns for Alternative Leasing Arrangements

Source: FarmDoc Daily

August 6, 2021

Obtaining control of land through leasing has a long history in the United States.  Leases on agricultural land are strongly influenced by local custom and tradition.  However, in most areas, landowners and operators can choose from several types of lease arrangements.  With crop share arrangements, crop production and often government payments and crop insurance indemnity payments are shared between the landowner and operator...

A Somewhat Smaller than Expected Cattle Herd

Source: FarmDoc Daily

July 26, 2021

The U.S. cattle herd appears to continue its second consecutive year of decline within its typically decade long period of expansion and contraction. Currently, there are about 5.5% more beef cows in the U.S. than during the last low point in 2014. The first signs that the beef herd was leveling off came about a year and half ago, and recent reports indicate continuation of that trend, reflecting economics and drought in parts of cattle country...

Variability of Exports for Large Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Exporters

Source: FarmDoc Daily

July 7, 2021

It is not uncommon to read or hear the concern that the US is a residual supplier of corn, soybeans, and wheat to the world.  In other words, the US becomes a source only if other sources are unavailable.  An implication of the US being a residual supplier is that its exports of corn, soybean, and wheat should vary more than other large exporters...

Where Did All the Crop Acres Go?

Source: FarmDoc Daily

June 21, 2021

A recent farmdoc daily article (June 10, 2021) reported estimates of the total acreage base, or size of the “acreage pie,” for the U.S. over 1998-2020.  The total was relatively stable from 1998 through 2014, near the average of 359.4 million acres.  However, there was a puzzling 14.4 million acre drop in total crop acreage after 2014.  This trend was first noted in earlier farmdoc daily articles (April 2, 2015January 21, 2016).  The purpose of this article is to investigate what happened to the missing U.S. crop acres...

Characteristics of Higher Profit Farms- 2011 through 2020

Source: FarmDoc Daily

June 17, 2021

Data from the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association (FBFM) for 2011 through 2020 was used to analyze selected differences between the highest profit grain farms (high one-third) and the lower profit grain farms (low one-third). The analysis was done for 2020 and for the 2011 through 2020 ten-year average...

Stock-to-Use Ratios of US Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Since 1960

Source: FarmDoc Daily

June 14, 2021

Stocks are an important market variable.  They reflect the balance between supply and demand.  High stocks generally mean low prices, and vice versa.  US policy toward stocks has changed over time, culminating in the 1996 farm bill eliminating most public stock programs.  Reflecting policy changes, the ratio of US corn, soybean, and wheat stocks to use have declined since 1960...

On-Going World Crop Properity and US Crop Agriculture

Source: FarmDoc Daily

May 17, 2021

The most common US view is that an era of crop prosperity ended in 2013.  In contrast, trends outside the US suggest crop farming in the rest of the world (ROW) remained in an era of growth, particularly for feed grains and oilseeds.  Throughout the 21st Century US growth has lagged behind ROW growth and is likely the reason for the recent struggles of the US farm sector...

Crop Insurance Coverage Levels and ECO Use on Corn

Source: FarmDoc Daily

May 4, 2021

Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) became available as an add-on to a farm-level crop insurance product in 2021. While available for other plans, we focus on Revenue Protection (RP) in this article...

What Will Be the Capabilities and Skills Needed to Manage the Farm of the Future?

Source: FarmDoc Daily

April 15, 2021

A recent farmdoc daily article (April 9, 2021) discussed a number of automation and precision agriculture technologies that will be increasingly used in production agriculture.  The adoption and use of these technologies will require additional expertise and skills of managers and the workforce on the farm in the future...

Just How Surprising Was the Prospective Plantings Report for Corn and Soybeans?

Source: FarmDoc Daily

April 7, 2021

The USDA released the 2021 Prospective Plantings report on March 31st.  The report indicated that U.S. farmers intended to plant 91.444 million acres of corn and 87.6 million acres of soybeans this year.  The market reaction to the release of the report was stunning, with both corn and soybean futures increasing the daily allowable limit...

2020 U.S. Ag Exports Second Highest on Record, Led by Soybeans, Corn and Pork to China

Source: FarmDoc Daily

April 7, 2021

This week, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released its 2020 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook, a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports.  Today’s update includes highlights from the report, with a focus on soybeans, corn and pork...

Tax on Farm Estates and Inherited Gains

Source: FarmDoc Daily

April 6, 2021

The U.S. Congress is debating two sets of new legislation that would impact the tax on farmer estates and inherited gains, indicative of the momentum for changes to the current code for estate, gifts, and generation skipping taxes. Both pieces of legislation could have significant impacts for middle class business owners like farmers...

Increased winter snowmelt threatens western water resources

Source: EurekAlert!

April 5, 2021

More snow is melting during winter across the West, a concerning trend that could impact everything from ski conditions to fire danger and agriculture, according to a new University of Colorado Boulder analysis of 40 years of data...

Recapping USDA’s March 1 Grain Stocks and 2021 Prospective Planting Reports

Source: FarmDoc Daily

April 5, 2021

This article recaps the information provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the March 31, 2021 release of March 1 Grain Stocks and 2021 Prospective Plantings. The quarterly Grain Stocks report provides an opportunity to assess the pace of consumption during the first half of the corn and soybean marketing year, and the first three quarters of the marketing year for wheat as well as on-farm and off-farm stock positions by state...

Gasoline Sales Provide Lift for Ethanol- Corn; While Higher Prices are Impacting Farmland Values

Source: FarmDoc Dailey

March 30, 2021

Reuters writer Stephanie Kelly reported this week that, “U.S. gasoline sales for 2021 have exceeded prior-year levels for the first time since last March, when officials first started to widely impose coronavirus lockdowns, according to a report on Tuesday from the Oil Price Information Service by IHS Markit...